Will I be ok?

Stocks are not pieces of art. They are not fiat money. Cults of personality do not last forever in the stock market. Narratives break. Eventually, everyone figured out that Galileo was right. Eventually, everyone will figure out that Cathie Wood isn’t. And it won’t take as long either.

Drew Dickson

Real financial planning is so much more than pontificating about the benefits of a low-cost, globally diversified portfolio. While this is very important, most people are not interested in the intricate details of each investment they own. What they really want to know is if they are going to be okay and, more importantly, if they have the means to enjoy their lives.

Tony Isola

Personal finance

The Ultimate Alternative Investment: Happiness

The Best Investment Strategy is Simple, But Hard to Do


Infinity Q: The Fund that Checked All the Wrong Boxes When investments come with warning signs.

A Memo to Investors

Underperformance: Not a Bug, a Feature


Do Any Economists Have Superior Forecasting Skills?

Brain stuff

Cooperators, Crusaders, and the Complicit: The Trinity of Religious Moral Character

Financial history

Curious Speculations: Collectibles & NFTs


The Fourth Law of the Internet

Dreams All the Way Up. Price/FAAMG and a defense of seemingly crazy high tech valuations


On $300B of Y Combinator Startup Success

Just 3 companies, Airbnb, DoorDash, & Stripe, represent more than half of YC’s top companies portfolio value, and the top 10 companies represent ~75% of it.

I hear people complain about polarization in the markets. The fact is, a small number of winners will always be responsible for the lion’s share of the returns, even in private markets apparently.

Startup Growth and Venture Returns: What We Found When We Analyzed Thousands of VC Deals

Simulations on 10-year investing windows for seed-stage deals suggest fewer than 10% of investors will beat the index, even if those investors have skill in picking deals. Like Vanguard has taught us in the public markets, individual investors could benefit from viewing the index as the default and then overlaying individual deals that they like.


This is the final resting place of your cast-off clothing

Department of future

Preparing for 2030. What do the next ten years hold?




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